Friday, 17 November 2017

When does this all end - Update2

To buy or not to buy: The US 10 year versus high yielding utility stocks.

Previous Post: When does this all end - Update

The US 10 year yield is at 2.34%

And compared to utility dividend stocks ...

American Water Works (Dow Jones Utility: AWK) dividend @ 1.87%
NI Source (Dow Jones Utility: NI) dividend @ 2.58%
American Electric Power (Dow Jones Utility: AEP) dividend @ 3.25%

The question is, which asset class do you trust to provide a return for 10 years? Of course your ability to judge future inflation expectations (see TIP for iShares TIPS Bond ETF) and how extended the price trend is over time for each class.

Recently the Dow Utility Index has shown 3 thrusts higher in to new ground, the Dow Jones Utility index is now struggling to get higher as each thrust suffers a loss of power. These thrusts are simply a push higher into new ground to allow the big accounts to sell into, as this move high creates the BIDs to meet the large accounts ASKs. The big boys need the uniformed to buy at highs so they can sell to them.

Higher interest rates will either demand the Dow Jones Utility (DJU or RTT:!UTIL) pay a higher dividend, or create a slump in trend the Dow Jones Utility. The massive bullish stock market trend from March 2009 is extreme, and a leading bearish signal will be the Dow Jones Utility as it reflects the crazy prices paid for yield. Do you get the feeling we are near the turn?

UTIL 3 tops

Longer term trend

UTIL long trend

Original Post:

Thursday, 2 November 2017

Bitcoin Price Forecast

We have put the call into Gandalf for his pick of the next top of Bitcoin.

Reference: Forecasting Amazon price like Al Capone

His advice is use the design law of nature, the Fibonacci Arcs, and yes $10,000 is on the table. But sadly this is only a 30% move. Get the feeling a serious correction is very very near!

Bitcon BTC

However we have seen this before, warning for newbies !

Tower Pattern

Original Post:

Thursday, 26 October 2017

Forecasting Amazon price like Al Capone

When Al Capone ran a scam, he new the outcome, he new his forecast would be on the money. When forecasting stock resistance (or support) zones in the future there really only a few tools that work,
image1 and one would be the Gann Angle with Fibonacci Arcs.

Previous Post: SP500 How much higher ?

The chart below shows how two points are selected [(a) and (b)] which have a number of bars between them which on the count is equal to a Fibonacci number. Fibonacci numbers are found through out life forms in nature as the form represents the best design for survival. A healthy human shape is a form of fibonacci design, so why not stock price. To be fair the fibo arcs work best when the stock has a popular public following as increased human involvement encourages the natural fibonacci sequence to work.

The other tool which approves of is the Wyckoff Cause and Effect Point and Figure count guide, but that is for another post.


Original Post:

Saturday, 21 October 2017

Gold Cycle Update

Why has gold not fallen below $1000 (well so far), what is the golden canary telling us?

Previous Posts:
SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing - Update
SP500 How much higher ?

In short, the old heads out there know there is a ying for a yang! Currently the SP500 screaming higher, massive debt, low very !VIX. But as well all know this wont last forever, and the flip side could be very scary. Hence the hedge into metals, and building of the 4.5 year gold base, and as a Richard Wyckoff analyst a base is 'future profits' that can not be ignored.

Within the gold chart below (GLD) we see two dominant cycles, and both show a bottom is forming which should end with an upswing into year end. Notice that cycles do exist in the gold market. Cycle do go 'missing in action', and they do return. Cycles are guide to price highs and lows, price action (Wyckoff Logic) over rules cycles for investment decisions.

The indicator on price is our own RTT Steps which shows off climbing Support and Resistance.

Gold Cycle

Original Post:

Thursday, 12 October 2017

SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing - Update2

A Richard Wyckoff investor has to make a judgment of where we are in the trend, start, middle or end before they can invest.

Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing - Update

Where are we in the current trend ?

From the consolidation (re accumulation)  in 2016 we are not at the start, that is easy, so we must be in the middle or near the end. So far we have seen a massive 42% move and on any measure that is huge, and based on the dominate cycle within the SP500 this blog says we are near the end, or in the last move (say 10% if we are lucky) before we get another major consolidation. Nobody knows if the next consolidation will be defined as a reversal or continuation at this stage. Nothing moves in a straight line for ever!

New money into this market is surely high stakes poker. The defensive trades (gold, silver, bonds) all have bases set up for a price move(if SP500 reverses), the question is do market players continue to move money from SP500 to defensive positions.

NOTE: The price chart below with our RTTHurstDPO indicator shows price is conforming to the 900 bar Kitchin cycle.

SPY cycles kitchin

Original Post:

Saturday, 7 October 2017

SP500 How much higher ?

Who's gonna pick a top, not us, but we can pick the next rocky zone?

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Original Post:

Tuesday, 3 October 2017

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